March 1, 2008

A Delegate Dance

Throw up a negative ad. Get a New York Times reporter to sniff around. Be the butt of late-night talk show monologues. That kind of abuse must be better than trying to slog through guidelines, like the Texas Democrats' 37-page delegate selection plan.

The 2008 American presidential contest is unquestionably one of the most exciting periods in the 21st century. Lost to history, except perhaps to future Ph.D. candidates and gluttons for punishment, will be the convoluted bureaucratic process, misleading polls, and the calculus involved just trying to figure out how many delegates a candidate can win.

Of the top leading candidates, their current delegate numbers are as follows:

Barack Obama Hillary Rodham Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee
Current Delegates 1378* 1276* 1014 257
*Status of Michigan and Florida delegates still to be determined

The Democratic candidate needs 2,025 delegates and the Republican candidate needs 1,191. On March 4, four states will be offering these delegates:

Ohio Rhode Island Texas Vermont
Democratic delegates 141* 21 193* 15
Republican delegates 85 17 137 17
*In Ohio, a Democratic candidate needs to win from primary, 67 from caucus. The Houston Chronicle explains the Texas two-step.

Lucky for the good citizens of Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont, all they need to figure out is which name to pick on Tuesday. While everyone else tries to influence, wheedle, and divine what's on their minds, let's take a peek at what research the voting-age population has been conducting online.

Ohio Rhode Island Texas Vermont
Fastest moving presidential search Ralph Nader Hillary Clinton Ralph Nader Hillary Clinton
Highest presidential search Barack Obama Barack Obama Barack Obama just plain ol' Obama

More notes on the state searches:

John McCain: In all four states, McCain had a significant search lead over Huckabee (about two to three times more). More tellingly, McCain had a far wider assortment of inquiries looking into his family (especially his wife Cindy McCain, although McCain's kin have been the national focus of curiousity for some time), his bio, and issues. Texans looked into the details of New York Times profile, including the "mccain lobbyist" and "iseman mccain," as whether his "birthplace" (military installation on Panama Canal) poses questions about his eligibility for the highest office in the land.

Mike Huckabee. His searches have been modest in the four states. His recent Saturday Night Live appearance may have upped his cool factor, but it didn't prompt searches in these key states.

Barack Obama: Due diligence into the Illinois senator continues at more than double the rate as New York senator Clinton. In Obama’s case, people in Ohio and Texas are still scouting out rumors: His faith continues to be under scrutiny, judging from queries like “barack obama muslim,” “obama’s church,” “obama antichrist,” “barack obama muslim school,” and the straightforward question, "is obama a christian or a muslim." Photo searches of him in local Kenyan garb when visiting the country was boiled down to "obama turban" (and often misspelled as "obama turbin"). The newest search to surge: "the obama delusion," after the Washington Post column examining rhetoric versus experience.

Hillary Clinton. Her searches have remained largely consistent among the top states, with focus on her “biography,” “campaign” and “bathing.” (Yes, bathing.) There are searches for husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, but they’ve been in the public eye far longer so understandably their buzz isn’t as high. Surging recently however are searches for Tina Fey’s SNL “report” on Hillary Clinton.

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