January 3, 2008

Iowa Ruckus

Iowa voters

Polls, tea leaves, and pig entrails: Figuring out the Iowa caucus ruckus hasn't been easy. Attempts have been made to explain the messy process itself and its history, although confusion still drives inquisitive queries on "what is a caucus" (+771%) and other important questions like "what is a caucus election," "what is the iowa caucus," and the difference between "caucus vs. primary."

Prognosticating the results gets even harder when the good citizens are reportedly a) indecisive about the candidates themselves, b) downright bored, and c) perhaps indifferent to showing up at all.

In defense of the nearly 3 million people who make up the state's population, the Buzz numbers show Iowans are doing their civic duty, at least online: In the past 7 days, "iowa caucus" (+624%) landed in the top 150 searches, edging out "tv guide" and "angelina jolie" (although less than "julia roberts"—but hey, she's favored for an Oscar nom).

As for who might emerge from the heartland with a political edge, the next best thing to pig entrails might be checking how much political homework Hawkeye residents have been doing about the candidates.


Contenders Iowa Searchers (all voters) Iowa Searchers (18-29) Iowa Searchers (30+)
John Edwards (Dem) Tied for first Fifth First
Hillary Rodham Clinton (Dem) Tied for first Second Second
Barack Obama (Dem) Second First Third
Mike Huckabee (Rep) Third Third Fourth
Ron Paul (Rep) Fourth Fourth Fifth
Mitt Romney (Rep) Fifth Sixth Sixth
John McCain (Rep) Sixth Seventh Eighth
Fred Thompson (Rep) Seventh Eighth Seventh
Joe Biden (Dem) Eighth N/A Ninth

Notes on the above... Among searchers of voting age, Edwards and Clinton shared the Buzz lead in the past seven days, although Edwards doesn't command the interest of the younger generation. A remarkable consistency is shared among people 30-44 and 44 on up, with maybe a flip-flop between McCain and Thompson.

 

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